Predictions

Elon Musk is 'in on' the USPS Federal Ballot Mail Portal / mail-in voting rollout.

No evidence emerged that Elon Musk was "in on" the USPS Federal Ballot Mail Portal rollout. The portal was a Trump administration/USPS initiative stemming from Executive Order 14399; Musk publicly opposes mail-in voting and his DOGE connection to USPS was limited to cost-cutting/efficiency reviews. The portal was ultimately halted by court injunction in September 2026 with no documented Musk involvement in its development.

The Eurovision Song Contest breaking apart — countries not broadcasting it and moving to YouTube — will be the beginning of the end of the European Union, the first crack.

While Eurovision 2026 did see a real and significant boycott — five countries (Ireland, Spain, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Iceland) refused to participate or broadcast, with some broadcasters switching to YouTube streaming — there is no evidence whatsoever that this has acted as a "first crack" or "beginning of the end" of the European Union. The EU itself remains intact; the boycott was driven by the Israel/Gaza controversy, not EU fractures, and Eurovision 2027 is already being planned with 24+ countries. The prediction's core claim — that Eurovision's broadcasting disruption would be a catalyst for EU dissolution — has not materialized.

Ticketmaster will not implement the vaccine/testing verification program.

Ticketmaster publicly confirmed it did not implement a company-wide vaccine/testing verification program, stating there is "absolutely no requirement from Ticketmaster mandating vaccines/testing for future events" and leaving any health screening decisions to individual event organizers. Multiple fact-checkers (Snopes, PolitiFact, BBC, FullFact) corroborated this outcome.

The Russia-Ukraine war will be over before Ukraine actually manufactures a single Patriot missile under the new license.

Something big and bad (a 'big boom') will happen in Ukraine — not Europe — because Ukraine is pushing Putin too far with drone strikes on Moscow.

Since the prediction was made on July 9, Russia has escalated dramatically against Ukraine: on July 19, Russia launched what Ukraine called its largest-ever ballistic missile barrage on Kyiv (roughly 40+ Iskander-M and hypersonic Zircon missiles), preceded by a major drone-and-missile attack on July 2 that killed 17, and another on July 6 killing 22. These qualify as "big boom" events in Ukraine triggered in part by ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow. However, the prediction is only partially correct: the escalation happened in Ukraine (as Adam specified), but there is no single, clearly unprecedented "big boom" — rather a series of large (record-setting) but conventional strikes. The causal framing (retaliation for Moscow drone strikes) also matches reporting, but no nuclear or truly catastrophic single event occurred.

Whoever the Democrats run in 2028 (likely a democratic socialist, possibly Newsom as the stooge) against the Republicans will get wiped out, mirroring McGovern's 1972 landslide loss.

Republicans will hold the House in the midterms (Adam takes a $2 bet against John, who says no way).

Grace and assurance — Adam writes the phrase down.

No Agenda Episode 1879, recorded on June 21, 2026 (the same date as the prediction), was officially titled "Grace and Assurance," confirming that Adam wrote the phrase down and used it as the episode title.

Artemis III will probably work, but Artemis IV, when they actually send people to the moon, will blow up.

Nothing will happen with the NASA moon base plans — they'll send a couple of robots up, one will stop working, and the whole thing will just get put off.

Contrary to the prediction, NASA actively accelerated its Moon Base plans around the time of the prediction. On May 26, 2026 — just two days before the prediction was made — NASA held a major press conference announcing nearly $1 billion in new contracts for rovers and landers, a three-phase roadmap to a permanent lunar base by 2036, and three uncrewed missions targeted for 2026–2028, with Moon Base I aimed for fall 2026. Rather than shelving the program, NASA fast-tracked it with concrete hardware, funding, and launch timelines.

Someone will take over one of these drone shows with a radio control and use it to attack a crowd.

No evidence has emerged of anyone taking over a drone light show via radio control to attack a crowd. There have been drone show accidents (e.g., malfunctions in Sydney and Orlando) and unrelated drone attack plots (e.g., the FBI-disrupted UFC White House event), but none involve the specific scenario of a hostile radio-control hijacking of a drone show to weaponize it against spectators.